As well as putting lives in danger, the weakness we are displaying in Afghanistan will undoubtedly have serious ramifications for the entire region. The region will become more and more unstable as rogue states are embolden by our cowardice. Even President Obama must realize that the chance of a major war in the Gulf next year is increasing rapidly to 100% --accelerated by the fact that the lunatic in Iran is going to have Nukes.
It is looking more and more like Israel will be force to take preemptive action against Tehran. So what is going to happen when Israel attacks Iran? Well, you can bet that Ahmadinejad is not going to just take it. He will undoubtedly retaliate, but the question is where? He may be a lunatic, but even Ahmadinejad realizes that Israel is the best-defended state in the region, so he may very well direct his attack elsewhere. There are plenty of less defended targets in the region well within the reach of Iran’s missile capability, including US troops in Iraq and in the Gulf.
Unlike Israel, the Arab states in the region rely on us to protect them. So, the US will be drawn into another Gulf war if these states are threatened or attacked. There will be no way for us to stay out. The Saudi oil fields are well within Iran’s reach, so if President Obama thinks we can stay out of a war that spreads outside of Israel-Iran he needs to think again.
So what does this all mean? Well the the stability of the region is really dependent on swift and decisive US action in the region, undoubtedly what McChrystal has been telling President Obama. We can surmise this by the fact that he has gone public, risking his career. You can bet that for a General of his stature to risk his career his convictions are deep.
If the US pulls out of Afghanistan, you can bet that the flood gates will open and the oppressive regimes will again rule the region and we will be back where we started with some of those regimes having bigger bargaining chips.
If President Obama decides to not heed the warning of his commanders on the ground, you can bet the US will be back in the region in short order and fighting a more costly war and more soldiers will die.
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